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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -161 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.

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