Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-205/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 8.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 7th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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