Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+123/-159).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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