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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
  • The model projects the Chargers to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Saints defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.64 adjusted yards-per-carry.
  • The New Orleans defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
  • The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Justin Herbert has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this season (6.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (14.1%).
  • Justin Herbert's 6.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a meaningful decrease in his running ability over last season's 19.0 figure.
  • Justin Herbert's 3.54 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year signifies a substantial regression in his rushing prowess over last year's 6.01 rate.

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