Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has rushed for substantially more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (8.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (142 per game) vs. the Jets defense this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 40.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Chargers O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
The New York defensive tackles rank as the 8th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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