Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
This week, Justin Herbert is predicted by the projection model to notch the 7th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 4.5.
Comprising 14.1% of his offense's carries this year (75th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Justin Herbert's mobility marks him as a major threat in Los Angeles's rushing attack.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (35.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
This year, the tough Bears run defense has given up a paltry 85.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 5th-fewest in football.

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