|
Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-105).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.This week, Justin Herbert is predicted by the projection model to notch the 7th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 4.5. Comprising 14.1% of his offense's carries this year (75th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Justin Herbert's mobility marks him as a major threat in Los Angeles's rushing attack.
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
At the present time, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (35.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.This year, the tough Bears run defense has given up a paltry 85.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 5th-fewest in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|