Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
Justin Herbert's 18.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a a meaningful improvement in his running prowess over last year's 8.0 figure.
Justin Herbert's 4.68 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year marks a a remarkable gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 3.90 mark.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The model projects Justin Herbert to notch 3.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
When talking about blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the league last year.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Dallas's collection of DEs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.