Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.2 plays per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Justin Herbert's running efficiency (3.89 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (17th percentile among quarterbacks).
Justin Herbert has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.71 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing just 3.47 yards-per-carry.

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