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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Justin Herbert has been a much bigger part of his offense's run game this season (15.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.7%).

Justin Herbert's 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies an impressive growth in his rushing ability over last year's 8.0 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least run-centric offense in the league (34.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year at blocking for the run game.

The Patriots defense has had the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.77 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

The Patriots safeties grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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