Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:56 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (15.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (9.7%).
Justin Herbert's 20.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a noteworthy gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 8.0 rate.
Justin Herbert's 5.64 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season illustrates a noteworthy gain in his rushing ability over last season's 3.90 mark.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 36.3% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year.
This year, the tough Baltimore Ravens run defense has surrendered a feeble 99.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 10th-fewest in football.