Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Justin Herbert has run for substantially more yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (8.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (136 per game) vs. the Packers defense this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the influence it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year.

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