Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
Justin Herbert has run for substantially more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (8.0).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Justin Herbert is expected by the projection model to accumulate the 9th-fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 3.2.
The Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.
With an awful tally of 4.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (23rd percentile), Justin Herbert places among the worst rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

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