Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (11.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Justin Herbert has run for a lot fewer yards per game (8.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
Justin Herbert's ground efficiency has worsened this year, compiling just 4.57 yards-per-carry vs a 6.03 mark last year.

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