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Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (11.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.Justin Herbert has run for a lot fewer yards per game (8.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).Justin Herbert's ground efficiency has worsened this year, compiling just 4.57 yards-per-carry vs a 6.03 mark last year.
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