Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (10.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.5% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in the NFL (175 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to earn 2.6 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Justin Herbert has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (6.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

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