Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (11.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.8% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defense owns the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.17 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to accumulate 3.0 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Justin Herbert has run for significantly fewer yards per game (5.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
Justin Herbert's running efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 3.70 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.03 rate last season.

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