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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (10.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.4% in games he has played).

The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Justin Herbert has averaged a measly 1.0 carries per game this year, one of the lowest rates in the league among quarterbacks (22nd percentile).

The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Justin Herbert has run for substantially fewer yards per game (3.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

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