Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (10.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.7% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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