Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 16, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-134/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (12.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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