Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (14.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Justin Herbert has run for substantially fewer yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
Justin Herbert's rushing efficiency has diminished this season, compiling a measly 4.10 yards-per-carry vs a 6.03 figure last season.
Justin Herbert has been among the bottom QBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.52 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 10th percentile.

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