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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (13.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to accumulate 3.2 carries in this week's game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.

The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

Justin Herbert has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (11.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

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