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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 63.4 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (13.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 34.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Justin Herbert has run for a lot fewer yards per game (11.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

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