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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.43 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (12.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 32.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in run blocking.

Justin Herbert has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

Justin Herbert's ground efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a mere 4.84 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.03 rate last season.

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