Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (10.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 32.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
Justin Herbert has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

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