Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (13.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.1% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.