Justin Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-988).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the goal line this week (6.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.33 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 37.5% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Justin Herbert has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (3rd percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.