Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.56 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-most in the NFL.
The Browns cornerbacks grade out as the worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.4 per game) this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Justin Herbert has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (202.0) this season than he did last season (248.0).
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (61.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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