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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 205.5 (-105/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 203.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 205.5 @ -105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 5th-most in football.This year, the weak Saints defense has conceded a whopping 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-most in the league.The New Orleans Saints defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to attempt 32.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year.
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