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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-129/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 249.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 239.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.

This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

Justin Herbert's 206.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a material decline in his passing proficiency over last season's 248.0 rate.

With a lackluster 62.0% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert rates as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.

This year, the stout Falcons defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a feeble 4.2 YAC.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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