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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 223.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 216.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop.

Last year, the porous Raiders defense has allowed a colossal 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

The Raiders defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.56 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 55.6% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

In this week's contest, Justin Herbert is expected by the model to wind up with the 11th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.2.

When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Las Vegas's group of DEs has been fantastic last year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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