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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 273.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 266.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 273.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to attempt 39.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

With an outstanding tally of 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the leading quarterbacks in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 7th-fewest yards in the league (just 209.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Chiefs defense this year.

This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a measly 6.6 yards.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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