Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 284.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 281.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 284.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 41.8 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 7th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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