Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 253.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 262.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 253.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Justin Herbert is expected by the model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.3.
Justin Herbert grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 262.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Green Bay's DT corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
This year, the formidable Green Bay Packers defense has given up a paltry 206.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-best in the league.

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