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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 262.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.9.

The Lions safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

Justin Herbert's 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a meaningful diminishment in his passing ability over last season's 281.0 figure.

This year, the strong Lions defense has yielded a mere 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in football.

This year, the imposing Lions defense has yielded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a puny 4.4 YAC.

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