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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 281.5 (-160/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 41.6 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Justin Herbert has been among the least effective passers in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.62 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 23rd percentile.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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