Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 266.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 266.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 266.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Justin Herbert has attempted 41.8 throws per game this year, grading out in the 85th percentile among QBs.
Justin Herbert has been among the leading passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 295.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 199.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, giving up 6.47 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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