Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 270.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 275.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 270.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
The Houston Texans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.13 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.

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