Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 241.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 241.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 241.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 36.0 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert has been among the top QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 290.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Justin Herbert's passing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 70.5%.
Justin Herbert has been among the most effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 7.69 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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