Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 269.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 279.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 269.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 39.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Justin Herbert has been among the leading QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 281.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.64 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 25th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.