Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 307.5 (-117/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 301.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 307.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has been among the least effective QBs in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.59 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 16th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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