Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 298.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 288.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 298.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 67.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 42.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a measly 6.52 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 15th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

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