Justin Herbert Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to attempt 39.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

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