Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 22, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
This year, the poor Cardinals defense has yielded a whopping 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the biggest rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Arizona's group of LBs has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see just 124.0 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Chargers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.
In this week's game, Justin Herbert is projected by the model to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.8.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

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