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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 19

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 62.2% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league has been the Los Angeles Chargers.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 127.7 plays on offense run: the fewest on the slate this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.

The Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.

This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has given up a mere 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the lowest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Houston's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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