Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 16, 2024 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL.
This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a staggering 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chargers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.4 plays per game.
With a poor 62.9% Adjusted Completion% (24th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the least on-target QBs in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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