Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Justin Herbert is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.6.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL against the New England Patriots defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of CBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.

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