Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 38.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

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