Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 41.6 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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