Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-173/+129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Justin Herbert has attempted 41.8 throws per game this year, grading out in the 85th percentile among QBs.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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