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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 19

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 127.7 plays on offense run: the fewest on the slate this week.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 37.8% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least run-centric offense in the league has been the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's DE corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

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