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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -149 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A running game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 6-point favorite in this week's contest.

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 7th-worst unit in the league this year with their run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The fewest plays in football have been run by the Chargers this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).

The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.

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